[공모전/세미나] Tracking the evolving versions of the EpiFX COVID Forecast
- 시스템경영공학과
- 조회수1974
- 2023-08-23
Seminar 일시: 2023년 8월 29일 화요일 11:00~12:00
Seminar 장소: 성균관대학교 자연과학캠퍼스 제2공학관 26513
● Speaker: Dr Peter Dawson, Defence Science and Technology Group, Australian Government Department of Defence
● Title: Tracking the evolving versions of the EpiFX COVID Forecast
● Abstract: In March 2020 the EpiFX Influenza forecast was modified to become Australia’s first COVID medium term forecast. Since then, to cope with the many different stages of the pandemic, and the different factors that were important at the time, such as: incorporating Google mobility data for predicting outbreak risk when a region had no current cases; accounting for sharp changes in Reff due to policy changes; to accounting for vaccination and new strains, EpiFX has evolved into many versions. This talk will walk through the mathematical methods behind those versions, their rationale, which versions performed better at different stages of the pandemic, and why.
● Speaker: A/Prof Nic Geard, School of Computing and Information Systems, The University of Melbourne
● Title: Agent-based modelling of COVID-19 to inform reopening of Australia’s borders
● Abstract: Following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019, Australia implemented a broadly successful suppression strategy – including closed closure of international and national borders. Throughout 2020 and 2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines from early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of suppression and minimal incidence to one of high vaccine coverage, reduced restrictions, and manageable transmission. In this talk I will describe how our group supported the development of the national government’s “re-opening” plan throughout 2021, using dynamic and agent-based models of arrival pathways, transmission, and mitigation measures.